Insights from the Global Terrorism Index 2024

The global landscape of terrorism is constantly evolving, with new and more intense challenges on the horizon. Our founding company, Hart, can provide integrated security solutions to those living and working in complex regions where terrorism is a threat.  

Hart is an internationally recognised risk management company that provides innovative and integrated security solutions around the world. By keeping on top of global trends and developments in risks, such as terrorism, Hart can anticipate threats and adapt to the constantly changing risk-landscape.  

Understanding the Global Terrorism Index 2024

The latest Global Terrorism Index (GTI) provides an overview of trends in terrorism, revealing crucial insights into many of the regions where Hart operates, including Somalia, Afghanistan, Libya, Nigeria, Ukraine, and Mozambique. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GTI uses data from Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database and other sources to provide a summary of key global trends and patterns.  

In this article, we’re taking a look at some insights from this latest report – published in 2024 and examining the terrorism impacts of 2023 – and how Hart navigates an increasingly challenging security landscape.  

What does the term terrorism mean?

What exactly is terrorism? While there is no universally agreed-upon definition, the most referenced definition laid out by the United Nations describes terrorism as any act intended to cause death or serious bodily injury to civilians with the purpose of intimidating a population or compelling a government to act. This broad definition gives scope to the multifaceted nature of terrorism, which often blurs the line between state-sanctioned violence, freedom fighters and terrorists. 

Global terrorism trends

There has been a shift in the frequency and intensity of terrorist activities. The latest GTI reveals:

• A concerning 22% rise in terrorism-related fatalities in 2023 compared to the previous year, totalling 8,352 deaths – the highest figure since 2017
• A 22% drop in terrorist attacks, suggesting that attacks have become less frequent but more deadly and targeted
• Burkina Faso now ranks first as the country most-impacted by terrorism in 2013 
• For the first time, Iraq was ranked outside of the top ten countries most impacted by terrorism 
• Before 2023, terrorism had been falling or remaining steady for several years, but the last 12 months saw the biggest percentage increase in terrorism since the founding of this index 
• 98% of terrorism deaths took place in countries affected by conflict, where the intensity of terrorism is also higher

Terrorist strikes are mainly concentrated in the MENA, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa regions, accounting for 94% of deaths from terrorism in 2023.

Terrorism in Hart operational regions

Hart International operates in numerous countries around the world, including conflict-affected and fragile countries like Somalia, Afghanistan, Libya, Nigeria, Ukraine and Mozambique. Let’s take a closer look at how terrorism presents in these regions:

Somalia

Somalia experienced the second largest decrease in deaths from terrorism: 2023 saw 434 deaths and 193 incidents, a fall of 43% and 37% respectively compared to 2022. Despite this, and the fact that Somalia dropped three places to rank seventh on the GTI, it remains a hotspot for terrorism. The Al-Qaeda-supported Al-Shabaab group claimed responsibility or were linked to 429 deaths. Security remains a priority need as stabilisation efforts continue. 

Afghanistan

Another country recording a significant reduction in the impact of terrorism is Afghanistan. Ranked sixth on the GTI, Afghanistan moved down from number one – a position it held since 2018 – with total incidents dropping by 71%.  

This does not, however, mean stability in Afghanistan. Since the GTI report doesn’t cover acts of state repression and violence by state actors, the drop is due to the Taliban gaining control of Afghanistan. Additionally, the presence of Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP) remains a serious threat, particularly in areas outside the Taliban’s control.  

Libya

Libya has seen a decline in terrorism in recent years, ranking 39th on the Index, just behind France. There were no incidents and no deaths from terrorism reported in Libya for the first time since 2010, and 30 deaths have been recorded in the past five years, compared to 537 in the five years prior to 2019.  

However, the country remains unstable, as fragmentation into rival factions has limited the operational capacity of terrorist groups and created a power vacuum. 

Nigeria

Nigeria retains its position as the 8th most affected country on the Global Terrorism Index, facing severe impacts from terrorism. The northeast, where Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) are active, is a particular area of concern.  

Nigeria recorded its first increase in terrorism in three years in 2023, with total deaths rising by 34% to 524. Despite military efforts, these groups remain resilient, perpetuating violence and humanitarian crises. The GTI report highlights a troubling rise in the lethality of attacks, which directly complicates aid delivery and peacebuilding efforts in the region. 

Ukraine

Ukraine’s GTI ranking has been heavily influenced by the ongoing war with Russia, climbing 20 places to rank 54th. Although primarily a state-driven conflict, instances of terrorism linked to various factions have been reported. The GTI report warns of a potential rise in politically motivated violence as the war persists. 

The war between Ukraine and Russia continues with the largest attack killing pro-Kremlin military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky and wounding 30 civilians.

Mozambique

Mozambique is grappling with a growing insurgency in its northern provinces, particularly Cabo Delgado, led by the ISIS-affiliated group Ahlu-Sunna wal-Jama (ASWJ). The violence has caused significant casualties and displacement, with attacks becoming increasingly sophisticated and deadly.  

Although Mozambique dropped to 15th on the Index, the GTI report warns that the situation is worsening. There is a critical need for robust risk management for those operating in the country. 

What is driving terrorism in these regions?

Several factors contribute to the persistence and escalation of terrorism in the areas where Hart operates. Data from countries like Somalia and Nigeria, show that embattled governance and ongoing conflict prime vulnerable people for recruitment to extremist and terrorist groups.  

In many of these regions, terrorist activities are driven by ideological factors, which often serve as a rallying point for disenfranchised individuals or groups seeking to challenge the status quo. 

However, poverty, unemployment and lack of access to basic services also contribute to the appeal of extremist ideologies. A recent study by the United Nations Development Program cited the need to find a better job as the most-given reason for joining an extremist or terrorist group in Africa. 

How Hart navigates terrorism

The complex nature of terrorism poses ongoing challenges, and Hart continues to monitor developments closely.  

“Understanding the nuances of terrorism in each region is crucial to our delivery,” says Head of Hart Risk Management. “We stay informed, agile, and responsive to the changing dynamics on the ground to protect our clients and staff and ensure the success of our operations.”  

In Somalia, for example, Hart has implemented robust security protocols and works closely with local communities. Hart’s priority is the safety of both their teams and the communities they serve – in high-risk areas, it is necessary to reassess strategies and work together with local stakeholders to mitigate risks and respond effectively to emerging threats. 

The state of terrorism

In 2023, 98% of terrorism deaths occurred in countries experiencing some level of conflict. While most of these occurred in countries at war, the number of deaths in countries involved in minor conflicts has been steadily rising.  

This statistic highlights just how important an experienced risk management and security provider is for those operating in high-risk, conflict-affected areas. Hart’s mission is to provide a secure environment for their clients, serving them with advanced, tailored security strategies that anticipate changing threats like terrorism.  

By understanding the drivers of terrorism and implementing effective security measures, Hart can continue to make a positive impact in the communities we serve, even in the most challenging environments. 

Learn more about Hart’s protection and risk-management services here.